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853 days ago
(Or: Why I am looking for a defensive Super Fund.) Well the Peak Oil game is over. It is time for me to post something serious. So I am thinking about my Superannuation and how investments are likely to do in the economic conditions ahead.... I am on record (in an article in The Australian newspaper, about 18 months ago) as saying we can expect a boom, followed by a severe bust. The bust will be comparable with The Great Depression, or alternately, with Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. My estimate for the length of the boom was 10 years, but I have since revised that down a little. There are three causes for the downwards revision: Firstly resources are tighter than I thought (a lot of proven reserves have been revised downwards recently), secondly "above ground" political factors are moving faster than I thought and finally, but most importantly, I failed to factor in the rather obvious fact that demand destruction occurs in ...
935 days ago
I haven’t had time to do much outside of work, but as a result of spending way too much time at work I have a piece of news. I guess it would not surprise you if I told you that we have some consultants in Saudi Arabia and Iraq? (Obviously, we have consultants everywhere.) The teams from Saudi Arabia and Iraq got to talking while they were at a conference in Sydney. I won’t divulge everything that was said, but here is what is rumoured to have come out of that conversation: - Iraq’s giant oilfield in Kirkuk was damaged during the Saddam Hussein era. Unsustainable practices were used to force high flow rates. As a result, the total amount of recoverable oil from the field has been cut by a factor of 2 – or possibly even 3. Shell technicians are studying the problem. Flow rates probably cannot be increased. We have been asked to examine the economic situation. Iraqi oil was meant to pay for Iraq’s reconstruction. But this is impossible - because the flow rates that were ...
938 days ago
Latest Actions. In my Blog entry on Security ( http://aeldric.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!A859FF3D2F2384E4!118.entry ) I mentioned that I have ended another planning cycle, and I need to act. That was all talk; action has been difficult, because I have to fit action in around work and work is pretty full-on at the moment. This is not a good sign – I work for one of the “Big 4” accountancy firms. When other companies get in trouble, they call us. A lot of companies are finding it hard to cope with a sudden doubling of fuel prices; it looks like some will go under. I don’t deal direct with these companies, but work tends to flow on. Anyhow, work on my Peak Oil projects has been confined to a couple of lunchtime shopping expeditions and a little work in the garden on Saturdays. Shopping for the Peak. I mentioned in my post on being a member of a survivor community that I wanted to develop my ability to contribute to a trade-based ...
938 days ago
Peak Oil Gardening 1. In future posts I will talk about some of the tips and tricks for gardening in your back yard, but in this post I want to talk about the most important step: Plan your garden for the future – have a “Post Peak” strategy. I started my garden a year ago, and my plan was to have crops for personal consumption, and other crops for trading. I think that I will probably be able to sell any food crop post peak, but to really maximise value it would be good if my “trade crops” are different from everybody else’s. And even better if it was something that everybody wants. My theory about Peak Oil is that once people realise that things aren’t going to get better, everybody will plant a vegetable garden. If I only plant peas and beans and tomatoes and carrots in my garden, then I have exactly the same stuff as everybody else. I talk in my blog entry on “Being a Member of a Survivor Community” ...
938 days ago
Euroa is one of the big rural communities in my state. Euroa ran out of water yesterday. Why? Because of high oil prices. Australia has suffered climate-change drought for 5 years now. For months Euroa has depended on water trucked in from Seymour. When the price of oil went up, the trucking company discovered that they could not afford to honour their contract and so they asked to re-negotiate the contract to accommodate the higher price of oil. The Water Authority replied that their budget for this year did not allow them room for a re-negotiated contract. So yesterday the people of Euroa woke up and turned on their taps to find that they had no water. The trucking company has declared that it is insolvent – unable to meet contracts at the current price of oil, and unable to re-negotiate - so it has gone out of business. Today people in Euroa are talking about leaving the town. But Euroa supports all the surrounding farming communities. What ...
