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1 days ago
REVIEW A short US trading week with lots of activity. The biggest news of the week was the potential debt default by Dubai World. Overseas markets reacted violently during thursday and friday, and in the US futures markets. On friday, however, most of the reaction was already somewhat muted. Asian markets were down, as was the US markets, but Europe closed higher. For the whole week the SPX/DOW was -0.1%, and the NDX/NAZ was -0.2%. Asian markets were all lower -4.3%, European markets were +0.3%, and the Commodity equity markets were -1.6%. Bonds were +1.3%, Crude -1.8%, Gold +2.3%, and the USD -0.8%. The first revision for Q3 GDP was lowered to 2.8% from 3.5%, and durable goods orders turned negative. Yet, existing/new home sales were higher, Case-Shiller/FHFA home prices were higher, Consumer confidence/sentiment rose, personal income/spending improved, and even the weekly jobless claims came in lower. Overall one of the most positive economic report weeks in quite a while. LONG ...
1 days ago
SHORT TERM: holiday volatility continues, DOW -154 Overnight all the Asian markets were lower, Hong Kong was down over 4% and Japan was over 3% lower. Europe opened lower, but rallied throughout the day to close +1.15%. US index futures were at one point down another 15 ES (SPX) points, but started to turnaround about 2:30 EST, chart below. At the open the SPX gapped down from wednesday's close at 1110 to 1090, well above the overnight low of around 1070. The market quickly sold off for a few minutes to 1084, but then resumed the recovery from the overnight lows. By 11:00 the SPX had rallied back to 1099, quite a volatile holiday for US traders and the past two days worldwide. After a pullback to 1093 by 12:30, the market tried to rally into the close. The SPX hit 1098 in the closing minutes but turned over to close at 1091. For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds were up 20 ticks, Crude dropped $1.90, Gold lost $13.00, and the USD was higher. Support ...
3 days ago
SHORT TERM: markets decline worldwide on Dubai debt problems, (DOW mini) YM -181 Overnight the following was released by Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5AN54C20091126?feedType=nl&feedName=usbeforethebell. Thank you Martin. In response to the news all the Asian markets were lower, with the biggest decline in China (-3.6%). Europe opened lower and closed -3.20%. US index futures traded lower overnight: ES (SPX mini) -24, YM (DOW mini) -181 and NQ (NDX mini) -45. Bonds rose 21 ticks, Crude lost $1.75, Gold slipped $4.00, and the USD was higher. The JPY appeared to be the biggest winner in the FOREX market. Tomorrow most of the markets will be open in the US. Should today's futures selling hold into tomorrow's open, the SPX will likely break the 1090 pivot signalling a resumption of downside momentum short term. Below is a chart of the action in ES over the past week. All the best to you and yours on this holiday! MEDIUM TERM: uptrend LONG ...
3 days ago
SHORT TERM: USD drops market rallies, DOW +31 Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.70%. US index futures were higher overnight on the decline in the USD. At 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims improved: 466K v 501K, Personal income was flat: +0.2% v +0.2%, but spending was higher: +0.7% v -0.6%. Also PCE prices rose: +0.2% v -0.6%, but Durable goods orders declined: -1.0% v +2.0%. As trading picked up in the first half hour the market started to rally. At 10:00 New homes sales reportedly improved: 430K v 405K, Consumer sentiment improved: 67.4 v 66.0, and the FED issued the following announcement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20091125a.htm. The market continued to rally until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1111. A small pullback followed over the next hour to SPX 1108 by 12:30, Then the SPX retested the day's high 1111 at 3:00 and closed there. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds were up 16 ...
4 days ago
SHORT TERM: market recovers from early selling, DOW -17 Overnight all of the Asian markets were lower. Europe opened lower and closed -0.55%. US index futures traded higher overnight, and at 8:30 the first revision to Q3 GDP came in lower: +2.8% v +3.5%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported another monthly recovery in housing prices: -9.4% v -11.3% annualized. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1106, but quickly headed lower hitting 1098 by 10:00. At this time Consumer confidence was reported higher: 49.5 v 48.7, and the FHFA home prices were reported: 0.0% v -0.3%. Also, the FDIC reported an increase in troubled banks: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-number-of-troubled-banks-rises-to-552-2009-11-24?siteid=bnbh. Independent Case-Shiller reports a year over year decline in home prices at -9.4%, while the government's FHFA reports home prices unchanged for the same period. Nevertheless, the market started to recover around 10:00 and rallied back to SPX 1106 by 11:00. Another ...
