Content Preview: rss
556 days ago
Editor’s note : this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News . It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here. Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 21, 2008. Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday with the Dow losing nearly 200 points. As a matter of fact, today trading action is very consistent to the bearish “turnaround Tuesday” scenario that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook. Contributed to the overall weaknesses were another record high energy prices, bearish news on financial stocks and a higher than expected core inflation reading. U.S. light crude oil rose $2.26 to settle at a record $128.98 after hitting a new intra-day trading record of $129.10 a barrel earlier in the session. Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily). In fact, today’s trading ...556 days ago
Editor’s note : this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News . It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here. 這是Capital Essence對2008年5月21日(週三)的市場技術分析。 昨天美股開盤即出現下跌，道指低收近200點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“轉跌”判斷十分吻合。 導致昨天大盤走軟的因素一是能源價格再上新高，二是金融股的負面新聞，三是高於預期的核心通脹數字。 昨天美國輕質低硫原油一度沖高至每桶129.10美元，最後收於128.98美元的收盤新高，上漲2.26美元。 圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖) 事實上，昨天原油的走勢確認了我們數天前提出的“測試130美元重要心理關口”的判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道：“價格在高位進行整固，對超買局面進行消化。這一走勢是看漲的，意味著未來數天油價很有可能測試130美元的重要心理關口。” 從技術上講，週二的發力上攻突破了一周來的整理區間，為下一步站上130美元的重要關口打下了基礎。另外，MACD指標同樣高於信號線，確認了看漲的走勢。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破122.60美元的上周低點，才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。 原油價格的大漲將道瓊斯運輸指數從週一創出的歷史新高拉下0.79%。不過值得注意的是，昨天Pacer International(PACR)逆市上揚，上漲1%。儘管漲幅不大，但是考慮到整個運輸板塊的普跌局面，該股的走勢仍是非常有利的，說明投資者對該股的樂觀情緒比較重。 圖1.2 Pacer International(日線圖) 自從我們在5月1日的Swing trader bulletin中對該運輸和物流服務提供商作出推薦以來，迄今漲幅已經超過7%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，我們非常喜歡該股過去幾個交易日的走勢 ...557 days ago
Editor’s note : this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News . It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here. Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 20, 2008. We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “ it seems to us that the eight-week recovery rally is now getting heavy. However, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, there is a pretty good chance that this bear-market rally will continue to go on for awhile longer .” Stocks opened on a positive note Monday with the S&P 500 hit a five-month high amid a stronger-than-expected economic indicators report. The market, however, struggled in the afternoon on record commodity prices. With regard to commodities, U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 76 cents to settle at a record ...557 days ago
Editor’s note : this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News . It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here. 這是Capital Essence對2008年5月20日(週二)的市場技術分析。 在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到：“在我們看來，大盤八周來的這一輪反彈行情步履已經十分『沉重』。不過，除非出現非常負面的重大利空消息，這一輪熊市反彈行情仍很有可能再堅持一會兒。”受一份好於預期的經濟報告的推動，週一美股高開，其中標普上摸5個月來最高點。不過下午隨著大宗商品繼續創出新高，股市沖高回落。 商品方面，紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上週五盤中沖高至每桶127.82美元的歷史新高之後，昨天創出每桶127.05美元的收盤紀錄，上漲76美分。黃金上漲3.50美元，收於每盎司904.80美元，漲幅0.39%。 圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖) 黃金在測試200日線支撐之後迎來強勁買盤，已經一路上攻至50日均線的關鍵阻力位。事實上，黃金的走勢同我們在兩周前的的市場前瞻中提出的 “技術反彈” 的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“金價近期的回調走勢已經使得價格逼近200日均線區域。200日線是一個強大的支撐位，而且很多投資者都會等著在這裡抄底，另外相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波強勁的技術反彈。由此來看，最近的拋盤已經有些矯枉過正，最終會觸發獲利空間巨大的買入機會。”我們可以看到，自從我們作出看漲評論以來，金價已經上漲約50個點。 不過，隨著價格攻至50日均線，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)已經快速接近超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波回調整理行情。總而言之，儘管5月初金價重新測試200日均線的時候我們極力看漲，不過很遺憾，現在我們的態度轉為謹慎了。 說到黃金，昨天Yamana Gold ...557 days ago
Editor’s note : this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News . It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here. Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 19, 2008. Stocks finished around the unchanged mark Friday. Though do not let the flat tape fool you, Friday trading action was pretty bullish considering that the S&P 500 ending Friday session at a more than 4-month high – the board market index up in four out of five trading sessions last week in a face of a record high energy prices. U.S. light crude oil rallied $2.19 to close at $126.04 a barrel, after hitting an all-time intraday high of $127.30 earlier. Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily). Technically speaking, today’s bullish breakout above the one-week consolidation pattern had confirmed the validity of the “test of an ...
