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4 days ago
When forecasting upcoming prospects for teams, strength of schedule is often used as a benchmark for the ease or difficulty with which a team will navigate a full season, or an important run down the stretch. But simple won-loss records tell an incomplete story, at best. The Baltimore Ravens currently stand at 5-4, but they've outscored their opponents, 222-154, and they've lost their four games by a total of 21 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars also stand at 5-4, despite being outscored, 220-181, and losing their four games by a total of 74 points. But these teams look the same in the won-loss column, which is why we need a better measuring stick. Enter DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), Football Outsiders' per-play stat that measures drive and scoring efficiency, adjusted for opponent. The idea with our statistics is to weigh the real value of plays, and the wins and losses that
11 days ago
Last week, we looked at Adjusted Line Yards, Football Outsiders' proprietary statistic, for different NFL offenses. ALY assigns responsibility and value to offensive lines based on the length of a run, the situation, and the opponent. We then drilled down with situational stats that reveal each team's ability to break long plays, extend drives, and avoid negative plays. When you put all those stats together, you get a more complete picture of a line's value to a team. In that same spirit, we have ALY and other numbers for defensive lines, and the principle is the same. The first step is to separate actual yard per carry from line yards by factoring in play value by situation. Then, we add the percentage of yards on running plays that are 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. Power and Stuffed stats illustrate how well defensive lines prevent opposing offenses
19 days ago
One of the primary goals of football sabermetrics is also one of its main challenges -- separating individual efforts in the ultimate team sport. Even skill position players depend so much on the efforts of others -- quarterbacks on receivers, running backs on offensive lines, linebackers on the defensive tackles who soak up double-teams and let them shoot the gaps. At Football Outsiders, we've put together a number of proprietary statistics to focus on the importance of line play on both sides of the ball. Adjusted Line Yards, which takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on yardage gained, is the primary stat. We then separate line yards per carry from running back yards per carry. The 10+ Yards stat separates yardage on plays 10 or more yards downfield -- this places more credit on the shoulder of the running back as he's making
25 days ago
When the Chicago Bears sent a 2010 second-round draft pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for defensive end Gaines Adams, there were many justifiable questions about the price the Bears paid. Adams was the top prospect at his position in the 2007 NFL Draft, having amassed 28 sacks at Clemson, including 22 in his final two collegiate seasons. But he became a disappointment over his early NFL career, with 12.5 total sacks in 2007 and 2008, and only one in 2009. Bucs head coach Raheem Morris intimated that Adams would be a "bust" if he didn't put up double-digit sacks in his third season, but a quick look at the NFL's sack leaders over the last decade tells us that it usually takes time to develop a great pass rusher. Nine different players have led the NFL in sacks in the last decade -- only Michael Strahan has taken the
33 days ago
Does it seem that there have been more roughing-the-passer penalties in 2009 than in recent seasons? That has indeed been the case, but everything is not what it seems. Through the first six weeks of this season, there have been 35 roughing calls, or 5.83 per week. That stands in sharp contrast to the 59 overall in 2008 (3.47 per week over 17 weeks), 61 in 2007 (3.59), and you'd have to back to 2006 to find an equivalent average (110 overall, or 6.0 per week). The 2005 numbers prove that it's hardly a "new focus" -- there were 127 roughing calls in that season, or an average of 7.47 per week. The total was even higher in 2004; 135 overall and 7.94 per week. So, the "new emphasis" is less that and more a return to form. It also puts a hole in the theory that the NFL has
